Modus College Footbal Rankings - 9/30/2007

As expected, yesterday was a topsy-turvy day with a large amount of teams ranked by the AP losing. The Modus Rankings predicted 71% of the outcomes correctly - up from 68% last week. The biggest gainers in the rankings were Kentucky and South Florida jumping 12 and 11 spots, respectively. The biggest decliners were Rutgers (-24), Penn State (-20) and Oklahoma (-14). This weeks features some games Tuesday, but I won't have predictions out until Thursday. Without further ado, here are this week's top ranked teams + other notables:

RANK	MODUS	Last Week	Change	AP	USA TODAY
1	LSU	1	0	LSU	USC
2	USC	3	1	USC	LSU
3	Arizona St.	4	1	California	California
4	Kentucky	16	12	Ohio State	Ohio State
5	Kansas	11	6	Wisconsin	Wisconsin
6	Ohio St.	10	4	South Florida	Boston College
7	California	14	7	Boston College	Florida
8	Cincinnati	17	9	Kentucky	Kentucky
9	Boston College	8	-1	Florida	South Florida
10	Wisconsin	18	8	Oklahoma	Oklahoma
11	South Fla.	22	11	South Carolina	Georgia
12	Connecticut	20	8	Georgia	West Virginia
13	Missouri	21	8	West Virginia	Oregon
14	Hawaii	23	9	Oregon	Virginia Tech
15	Purdue	19	4	Virginia Tech	Hawaii
16	Oklahoma	2	-14	Hawaii	Texas
17	West Virginia	6	-11	Missouri	Missouri
18	Oregon	5	-13	Arizona State	South Carolina
19	Michigan St.	7	-12	Texas	Arizona State
20	Texas	9	-11	Cincinnati	Purdue
21	Nebraska	24	3	Rutgers	Rutgers
22	Texas Tech	26	4	Clemson	Clemson
23	Illinois	29	6	Purdue	Nebraska
24	Florida	12	-12	Kansas State	Cincinnati
25	Wyoming	25	0	Nebraska	UCLA
26	UCLA	31	5
27	Georgia	28	1
28	Virginia	33	5
29	South Carolina	34	5
30	Clemson	15	-15
31	Miami (Fla.)	30	-1
32	Indiana	36	4
33	Florida St.	38	5
34	Texas A&M	44	10
35	Boise St.	46	11
36	UCF	37	1
37	Rutgers	13	-24
38	Virginia Tech	39	1
39	Kansas St.	49	10
40	Tulsa	45	5
41	Vanderbilt	50	9
42	Brigham Young	51	9
43	Auburn	52	9
44	Colorado	60	16
45	Bowling Green	47	2
46	Ball St.	62	16
47	Penn St.	27	-20
48	Alabama	32	-16
49	TCU	55	6
50	New Mexico	35	-15

Week 5: College Football Predictions - Modus Rankings

The games are going to be a lot closer this week. Last week, the average rankings delta between opponents was 56 (median 41); this week the average delta is 43 (median 27). Many of the games feature closely ranked opponents like Florida International (#115) at Middle Tennessee State (#118) or Penn State (#27) at Illinois (#29). Last week, there were only 6 games featuring opponents within 10 rankings of each other; this week there are 14 games featuring opponents within 10 rankings of each other. Get ready for some very close games this weekend! Without further ado, here are the predictions (sorted by rank of home team):

HOME TEAM	RANK		OPPONENT	RANK		PREDICTION
Oregon	5		California	14		Oregon
Boston College	8		Massachusetts	NR		Boston College
Texas	9		Kansas St.	49		Texas
Florida	12		Auburn	52		Florida
Rutgers	13		Maryland	74		Rutgers
Kentucky	16		Fla. Atlantic	43		Kentucky
Wisconsin	18		Michigan St.	7		Michigan St.
Purdue	19		Notre Dame	114		Purdue
Connecticut	20		Akron	65		Connecticut
South Fla.	22		West Virginia	6		West Virginia
Nebraska	24		Iowa St.	104		Nebraska
Texas Tech	26		Northwestern St.	NR		Texas Tech
Georgia	28		Mississippi	85		Georgia
Illinois	29		Penn St.	27		Penn St.
Miami (Fla.)	30		Duke	89		Miami (Fla.)
Virginia	33		Pittsburgh	66		Virginia
South Carolina	34		Mississippi St.	41		South Carolina
New Mexico	35		Brigham Young	51		New Mexico
UCF	37		La.-Lafayette	117		UCF
Florida St. (Neutral Site)	38		Alabama	32		Alabama
Virginia Tech	39		North Carolina	100		Virginia Tech
Houston	40		East Caro.	88		Houston
Texas A&M	44		Baylor	48		Texas A&M
Tulsa	45		UAB	92		Tulsa
Boise St.	46		Southern Miss.	53		Boise St.
Bowling Green	47		Western Ky.	NR		Bowling Green
Vanderbilt	50		Eastern Mich.	79		Vanderbilt
TCU	55		Colorado St.	109		TCU
Washington	56		Southern California	3		Southern California
Iowa	57		Indiana	36		Indiana
Oklahoma St.	58		Sam Houston St.	NR		Oklahoma St.
Colorado	60		Oklahoma	2		Oklahoma
Ball St.	62		Buffalo	84		Ball St.
Oregon St.	63		UCLA	31		UCLA
Troy	67		La.-Monroe	111		Troy
Navy	68		Air Force	42		Air Force
Georgia Tech	71		Clemson	15		Clemson
New Mexico St.	73		Ark.-Pine Bluff	NR		New Mexico St.
Northwestern	76		Michigan	70		Michigan
Arkansas	77		North Texas	112		Arkansas
Ohio	78		Kent St.	72		Kent St.
Stanford	80		Arizona St.	4		Arizona St.
Arkansas St.	81		Memphis	96		Arkansas St.
Fresno St.	82		Louisiana Tech	87		Fresno St.
Minnesota	83		Ohio St.	10		Ohio St.
Utah	86		Utah St.	113		Utah
Nevada	90		UNLV	64		UNLV
San Diego St.	91		Cincinnati	17		Cincinnati
North Carolina St.	93		Louisville	69		Louisville
Arizona	94		Washington St.	61		Washington St.
Toledo	95		Western Mich.	98		Toledo
Tulane	97		LSU	1		LSU
Miami (Ohio)	99		Syracuse	105		Miami (Ohio)
San Jose St.	101		UC Davis	NR		San Jose St.
Army	102		Temple	110		Army
Southern Methodist	103		UTEP	75		UTEP
Idaho	106		Hawaii	23		Hawaii
Central Mich.	107		Northern Ill.	108		Central Mich.
Middle Tenn. St.	118		Florida Int'l	115		Florida Int'l

PBS' "The War" and are we letting it happen again?

Last night while watching The War, Ken Burns' latest documentary on PBS, I was reminded about the parallels between the Spanish American War and the current Iraq War. The documentary, which I highly recommend, described the initial throws of war with Japan in the Phillipines post-Pearl Harbor. It did not, however, discuss why the United States had such an entrenched position in the Phillipines in the first place. The documentary titled last nights' episode, "The Necessary War". There is no question about the danger in the world at the time or the need to ensure victory against forces that wanted to impose their imperialist rule on the world. However, it is critical to understand why Japan attacked Pearl Harbor and specifically went after the Phillipines. And it all started more than 40 years earlier in a conflict with Spain... From Wikipedia:

The Spanish-American War was an armed military conflict between Spain and the United States that took place from April to August 1898.

The war began due to American demands that Spain peacefully resolve the Cuban fight for independence, though strong expansionist sentiment in the United States may have also motivated the government to target Spain's other remaining overseas territories: Puerto Rico, the Philippines, Guam and the Caroline Islands.

Riots in Havana by pro-Spanish "Voluntarios" gave the United States a reason to send in the warship USS Maine to indicate high national interest. Tension among the American people was raised because of the explosion of the USS Maine, and "yellow journalism" that accused Spain of extensive atrocities...

...The first battle was in the sea near the Philippines where, on May 1, 1898, leading Commodore George Dewey, commanding the United States Pacific Fleet aboard the USS Olympia, in a matter of hours, defeated the Spanish squadron...

...Meanwhile, Dewey allowed Emilio Aguinaldo to return to the Philippines. Aguinaldo's forces attacked the Spanish Army on land, successfully defeating them, and ended with the Battle of Manila (July 25, 1898–August 13, 1898) where the Spaniards surrendered Manila...

...The United States annexed the former Spanish colonies of Puerto Rico, the Philippines, and Guam. The notion of the United States as an imperial power, with colonies, was hotly debated domestically with President McKinley and the Pro-Imperialists winning their way over vocal opposition led by Democrat William Jennings Bryan, who had supported the war. The American public largely supported the possession of colonies, but there were many outspoken critics such as Mark Twain, who wrote The War Prayer in protest.

Interestingly, the story (and parallels) build:

In 1899 the First Philippine Republic was proclaimed in Malolos, Bulacan but was later dissolved by the US forces, leading to the Philippine-American War between the United States and the Philippine revolutionaries, which continued the violence of the previous years. The US proclaimed the war ended when Aguinaldo was captured by American troops on March 23, 1901, but the struggle continued until 1913. The country's status as a colony changed when it became the Commonwealth of the Philippines in 1935, which provided for more self-governance. Plans for increasing independence over the next decade were interrupted during World War II when Japan invaded and occupied the islands.

During the same period as the Spanish American War, Japan was rapidly becoming an imperialist power on the Asian continent and surrounding oceanic areas - war with China (1894-95), suppressing the Boxer Rebellion (1900) and war with Russia (1904-05). World War I served to strengthen the Japanese military including the powerful Navy. Japan went to war again with China in 1937. With United States' continued imperialism in the Pacific, there was inevitable conflict on the horizon with Japan to determine who would be the dominant pacific player leading right up to the devastating attack on Pearl Harbor and the United States entry into World War II, which Ken Burns estimates killed 50 to 60 Million people (write it out: 50,000,000 to 60,000,000 people)...

So, why do I think of the Iraq War when I hear World War II? Because the events leading up to World War II have so many parallels and potential parallels with Iraq. Talk of a cakewalk to win a war in a far-off land. War with a seemingly weak opponent who wilted under immense firepower. Chaotic government administration following the immediate expulsion of the previous government. Years-long armed resistance from internal revolutionary groups looking to expel the occupation force. Nearby regional powers uncomfortable with advancing imperialism. Talk of broader wars. Fear propaganda. Proxy-wars. Regional instability. Diplomatic failures.

Here is the point:
We need to hold Congress accountable to their duties as explained in the Constitution - mainly, the sole responsibility, and owner, of the power of declaring war. It can not be placed in the hands of the president - no matter what party you favor, you have to believe that this power is not to be trusted in one individual who is not accountable to any of us individually. Put the power back in Congress by demanding that no future action be taken without their decree. We can stop an inevitable 40-50 year train now if we just take a moment to look back in history to ensure it does not repeat itself.

For those in doubt of the seriousness of today's state of affairs: Here is a link for those of you who did not watch 60-minutes tense interview with Iran's President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Ignore the headlines and listen to what the man has to say and how he says it. It will raise the hair on your neck as you see him egg on George Bush - so don't forget, it's a collective decision to go to war, not one person's.

Week 4 College Football Rankings - Modus Rankings

Last week, the Modus Rankings predicted the correct outcome in 68% of the games. The biggest losers from last week's Top 25 were Penn State (-17), Texas Tech (-20), Alabama (-13), and Tulsa (-22). The biggest gainers were South Florida (+9), Wyoming (+9), and Nebraska (+8). The Pac-10 holds three of the top five slots but this probably will not continue given continuing conference play. The middle of the pack continues to see massive fluctuations with many teams swinging more than 20 +/- spots based on their result this past weekend.

Without further ado, here are the rankings side-by-side with AP and Coaches polls:

RANK	MODUS	Last Week	Change	AP	USA TODAY
1	LSU	1	0	USC	Southern California
2	Oklahoma	2	0	LSU	LSU
3	USC	4	1	Oklahoma	Florida
4	Arizona St.	11	7	Florida	Oklahoma
5	Oregon	5	0	West Virginia	West Virginia
6	West Virginia	9	3	California	California
7	Michigan St.	3	-4	Texas	Texas
8	Boston College	7	-1	Ohio State	Ohio State
9	Texas	8	-1	Wisconsin	Wisconsin
10	Ohio St.	17	7	Rutgers	Rutgers
11	Kansas	14	3	Oregon	Boston College
12	Florida	18	6	Boston College	Oregon
13	Rutgers	15	2	Clemson	Clemson
14	California	20	6	Kentucky	Virginia Tech
15	Clemson	22	7	Georgia	Kentucky
16	Kentucky	16	0	South Carolina	Georgia
17	Cincinnati	12	-5	Virginia Tech	Hawaii
18	Wisconsin	24	6	South Florida	South Florida
19	Purdue	25	6	Hawaii	Penn State
20	Connecticut	27	7	Missouri	Missouri
21	Missouri	13	-8	Penn State	South Carolina
22	South Fla.	31	9	Alabama	Nebraska
23	Hawaii	21	-2	Arizona State	Michigan State
24	Nebraska	32	8	Cincinnati	Alabama
25	Wyoming	34	9	Nebraska	Purdue (t25)
26	Texas Tech	6	-20		Arizona State (t25)
27	Penn St.	10	-17
28	Georgia	43	15
29	Illinois	50	21
30	Miami (Fla.)	48	18
31	UCLA	44	13
32	Alabama	19	-13
33	Virginia	47	14
34	South Carolina	26	-8
35	New Mexico	38	3
36	Indiana	29	-7
37	UCF	65	28
38	Florida St.	36	-2
39	Virginia Tech	35	-4
40	Houston	63	23
41	Mississippi St.	46	5
42	Air Force	28	-14
43	Fla. Atlantic	57	14
44	Texas A&M	30	-14
45	Tulsa	23	-22