Two recent posts at the Alley Insider about facebook have piqued my interest. The
first was about Facebook running out of money because its advertising revenues are not tracking to expectations. The
second suggests a business model of packaging up the user data and selling it to marketers.
I wrote a comment on the first saying:
"Fundamentally, Facebook is about communication, not commerce. They should position themselves as the future of all personal communications - web sharing, email, IM, VOIP, video VOIP, etc. and relentlessly pursue communications excellence and market dominance."
My post was panned by other commentators, but I still firmly believe that the fundamental function and benefit of Facebook is that it is a better mousetrap for communications. The resulting implication is that advertising or data research revenue models, will hurt their business in the long run because they are not customer centric solutions. The first will cause pesky interruptions and distractions to communications and the second, will breed intense distrust in the user base about the privacy of their communications.
So what should Facebook do? They should offer two services. The free service is the service as it exists today - chat, email, feeds. The paid service should be a complete VoIP telecommunications service supporting voice, video and file sharing for consumers in the home and on mobile. The biggest benefit of using Facebook's communication platform is that only trusted people can reach you. Not everyone you know is on Facebook yet, but a sufficient amount of scale has been reached now so that most of Facebook's users have 30% of their general network and 60% of their primary network connected already.
Let's run the numbers:Assume 10% of Facebook's 55MM users upgrade to the paid service. If that paid service is offered at $10/month (and replaces your home line and potentially mobile), the resulting yield would be 5.5MM users paying $120/year for a complete communications solution that has no telemarketers. 5.5MM x $120/year = $660M revenue. Not a $15B business yet but on its way.
Would you pay $10/month to Facebook if it would replace your mobile and home line? I would. Especially because no telemarketers could reach me.